f4f3 | The Edinburgh Agreement

On the 25th of January I wrote:

"So far, four main issues have arisen:

1. Timing of the referendum: Westminster wants "as soon as possible", Holyrood wants Autumn of 2014.

2. Body to oversee the referendum: Westminster wants the UK Electoral Commission, Holyrood wants a Scottish body established to do the job.

3. Who should be eligible to vote? Westminster would go with the electoral roll, Holyrood has promised to extend the franchise to 16 and 17 year olds

4. What should the ballot paper say? Westminster wants one question, Independence or Status Quo, Holyrood has registered Scottish support for a third option, staying in the Union with increased powers.

Basically, we're down to horse-trading over these issues.

Wallace didn't say much about Timing - I think they're giving that one to Holyrood.
Salmond has now come out and said the Electoral Commission aren't necessarily the wrong body to oversee the referendum - that makes one apiece (I'd say 1 was a bigger deal than 2, and make this a Holyrood victory).

The other two are interesting. Extension of the franchise was a Lib Dem policy at the last election. They'll look a bit awkward opposing it. The third question, or "Devolution Max" has never been an SNP policy - it was actually floated by the Scottish arms of the Unionist Parties as an alternative to an Independence Referendum. My view, at the moment, is that Holyrood will swap Devo Max for extending the franchise - if a referendum is lost on a Friday, Devo Max will be back on the agenda on Monday. And many more young people support independence than are against it, so the extension of the franchise is a bigger win.

There is no legal reason to put any limitation on a Section 30 derogation - watching the politics will be interesting. My view is that so far it is going all Holyrood's way - they are being given a legal right to do something they couldn't do legally, and they will retain control over the timing - something that is likely to play out in their favour.

In return for giving away these two huge advantages, Westminster is getting to use the Electoral Commission - not a huge win. So far, Westminster intervention in the process is playing well in England - showing the Bolshy Scots who's boss, showing some English steel, and disastrously in Scotland. In other words, playing very well to 90% of the audience, and abysmally to 10%. Only problem is, the 90% aren't eligible to vote. In a reversal that makes obvious why I support Independence, the voice of the 90% will not over-rule the voice of the 10%."

Sometimes it's nice to be right...